Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 0.365964 0.417463 0.473376 0.538562 0.612445 0.693563 0.789356
2025-08-31 0.286431 0.353650 0.432309 0.531044 0.651576 0.793851 0.974484
2025-09-07 0.238526 0.316477 0.414105 0.545112 0.716091 0.931447 1.223136
2025-09-14 0.189415 0.268923 0.375057 0.526662 0.737235 1.018939 1.424046
2025-09-21 0.155861 0.235783 0.349021 0.520479 0.772808 1.129742 1.672216
2025-09-28 0.128677 0.206670 0.323552 0.510476 0.800864 1.233568 1.925913
2025-10-05 0.113475 0.192674 0.317697 0.528010 0.871440 1.408228 2.308574
2025-10-12 0.097488 0.174547 0.302362 0.527948 0.914131 1.545603 2.652876
2025-10-19 0.085553 0.161048 0.292248 0.534510 0.968026 1.707455 3.058940
2025-10-26 0.076732 0.151450 0.287144 0.548592 1.036314 1.901755 3.546117
2025-11-02 0.065111 0.134609 0.266365 0.530974 1.044966 1.992678 3.862264
2025-11-09 0.054357 0.117541 0.242417 0.503456 1.030668 2.039265 4.101985
2025-11-16 0.046939 0.106213 0.228374 0.494240 1.052618 2.161009 4.510978
2025-11-23 0.040528 0.095866 0.214679 0.483608 1.070304 2.277346 4.927302
2025-11-30 0.036754 0.090677 0.211027 0.493734 1.133008 2.493296 5.579217
2025-12-07 0.031390 0.080804 0.195480 0.475100 1.130549 2.573101 5.954647
2025-12-14 0.027598 0.073994 0.185762 0.468177 1.153266 2.710198 6.475212
2025-12-21 0.024165 0.067422 0.175494 0.458220 1.167314 2.829765 6.973044
2025-12-28 0.022518 0.065187 0.175450 0.473315 1.243708 3.102393 7.864987
2026-01-04 0.020290 0.060951 0.169627 0.472763 1.281188 3.288041 8.573922
2026-01-11 0.018591 0.057871 0.166323 0.478298 1.335118 3.521000 9.432175
2026-01-18 0.017339 0.055859 0.165580 0.490673 1.409021 3.813858 10.482902
2026-01-25 0.015200 0.050739 0.155291 0.474683 1.403525 3.902168 11.013149